Chattin' with Senator Edwards
Eric Rice....yay!
the archives for NotShocking.com
The War Of Art (with Digital Bonus Tracks)
Awol One
Cornerstone RAS
Posted by crazywanda at 4:01 PM 0 comments
other than the cheap shot at stern fans ("less than savory") i like resnikoff's parting shot today.....
Resnikoff's Parting Shot: The Stern Verdict
from Digital Music News, April 17th, 2006
As Stern settles into his Sirius Satellite Radio gig, questions continue to
focus on just how successful the move was. Stern is always surrounded by
dour forecasts, probably fueled by his less-than-savory brand of chit-chat
and penchant for controversy. But what is the current snapshot actually
saying? After about three months on the job, the numbers seem satisfactory,
but not great. On the low end, estimates peg the number of Stern converts at
one million, and towards two million on the high-end.
So was the 5-year, $500 million deal worth it? It is absolutely too early to
tell, though it already appears that the deal is above water. Isolating a
pure Stern convert is difficult, especially with so much selection on the
Sirius dial, though the overall lift seems substantial. A detailed look at
the Sirius accounting rolls would be illuminating, though a
back-of-the-envelope analysis sheds some light. Assuming a low-end, one
million conversion rate, a $12.95 monthly charge nets a yearly figure of
$155.4 million (assuming no churn). Multiplied by five years, the figure
jumps to $777 million, also assuming zero churn.
Incidentally, Sirius recently clarified that stock payouts are part of the
larger, $500 million estimate. "In October 2004 we disclosed that the
aggregate fixed obligations under our agreement with Stern would be
approximately $100 million per year commencing in 2006," the most recent
Sirius 10-K report states. "The 34,375,000 shares issued in January 2006 for
the benefit of Howard Stern and Don Buchwald, his agent, were valued in
October 2004 at approximately $110 million and were included as part of the
aggregate fixed obligations under the agreement. At issuance, these shares
were valued at approximately $225 million, which will be recorded to equity
granted to third parties and employees expense in the first quarter of
2006." Anyway, lifting above the weeds of this breakdown, it appears that
the deal is already paying off.
There is also a major branding benefit that Sirius receives, an effect that
continues thanks to newspapers like the New York Post. The effects seem
substantial. At this point last year, Sirius was nearing 1.5 million
subscribers, a number that has recently crossed 4 million. Regardless of how
many pure Stern converts there are, the acquisition raised the Sirius brand
tremendously, and the payoff has affected automobile executives and
consumers alike. Already, the company has a faster rate of subscriber
addition than XM Satellite Radio, which boasts 6.5 million subscribers. And
a monumental achievement could occur in the near future if Sirius manages to
surpass its longtime rival.
Meanwhile, the larger Sirius financial picture is still a bit rough on the
stomach. Red ink is heavy, and losses could top $1 billion this year, on
estimated revenues of $600 million. That has many lining up against the
format, predicting a major sinkhole of cash as competing formats gain
strength. For executives like Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin, that can be a bit
scary, though ultimately the gamble is what keeps things exciting. Whether
the picture heads into the black during 2007, as Karmazin predicts, is
speculative, though so far it appears that Stern is helping the overall
effort - and maybe saving it.
Paul Resnikoff, Editor.
Digital Music News
Posted by crazywanda at 10:21 AM 0 comments
Passover
The Black Angels
Light In The Attic
Posted by crazywanda at 10:18 AM 0 comments
The Black Angels
Download "Black Grease" (MP3, 192kbps)
The Black Angels
Light In The Attic
Buy at iTunes Music Store
Buy at eMusic
Posted by crazywanda at 11:52 AM 0 comments